Red zone conversion percentage is one of those base box score statistics that has been around for so long that it’s easy to miss in today’s 12-15 page NFL game books. It’s a deceptively simple, but powerful statistic: The teams that consistently convert Red Zone units into touchdowns are the same teams that win games and cover spreads. Teams with strong running games and tall, athletic receivers generally do well in the Red Zone, while teams that have trouble hitting the ball down the middle and don’t have the end zone corners marked will kick more field goals. . often not.
The fact that a high percentage of RZC has a direct correlation with the victories of SU and ATS should not surprise even the casual fan. What is more interesting? However, it is that RZC% also serves as an excellent tool in the predicting future results when used properly.
The power of the RZC% as a handicap tool becomes really evident when we compare how well a team has performed in the Red Zone while in insulted, season to date, against the percentage your next opponent has scored in the Red Zone over the same time period. In fact, I analyze opposing offensive and defensive unit pairings in many different areas and for many situations to determine if a team has a advantage (AD for short) over the other which may be significant enough to affect the bottom line versus the spread.
Before we can determine which team may or may not have an advantage, we need to know the league average for the stat in question. In this case, the league average for converting units entering the Red Zone into touchdowns is roughly 50%. Therefore, if Team A had a RZC% In order to (Offense) 55%, and Team B had to have a RZC% Against (Defense) of 60%, this would give Team A a RZC% F AD of + 15%. The formula would be:
(RZC% F of team A – League average) – (League average – RZC% A of team B)
What it gives us: (55 – 50) – (50 – 60) = + 15%.
When we combine Team A’s better than average results in the Red Zone (+ 5%), plus Team B’s worse than average ability to defend in the Red Zone (-10%), Team A ends up with a difference. different advantage that they could take advantage of if the two were face to face.
And that’s where Situation # 25 fits in. The premise is this: since 2002, teams that have a RZC% F AD of> 7.5 They are impressive 161-98 (62.2%) ATS when they also have a RZC% A> 50 no longer Game rating above average (this is ROF + RDE). Wasn’t it impressed? Let’s put things in monetary terms: if you had wagered $ 110 to win back $ 100 on each game, you would have made a net profit of $ 5,320 based on the results of these 3 different factors, during the last 7 seasons.
The last primary condition for this situation involves observing how often the current opponent of the team in question gives up a first try in Short distance situations on the third and fourth opportunity (S3C% A). This applies to all third and fourth down plays with 2 or fewer yards remaining. When we eliminate all opponents who have S3C% A worse than average (greater than 65%), the record for this situation jumps to an incredible 104-37 (73.8%) ATS.
There are 3 different secondary conditions (that is, tensors) that complete this situation. Secondary conditions typically exclude only a small percentage of games from the NFL contest pool that apply. An example would be ‘Exclude all Monday night games’ or, in the case of this particular situation, week 17 games are not included when many of the high-level teams involved are idle players, as well as any game played prior to Week 4. Teams in a situation where they may be “looking ahead” to face an opponent with a winning percentage greater than .800 in their next game are also eliminated.
Exclusion of games in week 17 makes sense for this situation, but you have to be careful about including too many secondary conditions and things can get out of hand very quickly in this regard. It is important that the secondary conditions fit into the context of the main logic or building blocks of the situation itself. Adjusting for this particular situation by eliminating games only in Week 9, or teams that scored exactly 2 preseason wins, are examples of out-of-context conditions that will only serve to falsely inflate the win percentage and reduce potential situations to match their past Success. in future games.
Here’s the full summary of Situation # 25 and all its related stats.
(Notes: ASMR stands for Average Spread Margin Rating. A positive rating indicates a trend that is stronger than average versus the line, negative – weaker than average. TDIS% is the percentage of teams in the league that have been involved in this situation at one point or another. % In weigh is the percentage of teams that have .500 or better and SPR is the average margin of the teams in this situation. For more details, see page 13 of my 2007 NFL Game Sheet Guide).
Summary of the situational trend n. 25 (last update: January 15, 2008)
Primary conditions (building blocks)
1)% Red Zone Conversion to Advantage (RZC% F AD)> 7.5.
2)% red zone conversion against (RZC% A)> 50.
3) Above Average Racing Games Rating (AAVG RG).
4) Opponent S3C% A (OP S3C% A) Secondary conditions (tensors)
1) Exclude week 17 and week 0.800.
Situation statistics
ASMR: -0.4
% Of origin: 50.4
Dog%: 45.0
% TDIS: 87.5
% WEIGHT: 66.1
SPR: -0.93
Best teams: SD (20); KC (12); MAR (7); OAK (7)
Situation records
Overall (since ’01): 100-26 ATS
2007 season: 11-4 ATS
2006 season: 6-2 ATS
2005 season: 13-2 ATS
2004 season: 26-5 ATS
Last 3 results. Choose between brackets.
2007 WK19 – NE 31 JAC 20 (JAC +13) W
2007 WK18 – JAC 31 PIT 29 (PIT +2.5) W
2007 WK16 – SD 23 DEN 3 (SD -9) W
