Absolute odds: 10/1
Group E winners: 10/11
Italy is the grandmaster of heartbreaking tragedy when it comes to grand finals. In all three World Cups held in the 1990s, the Italians retired on penalties, including Roberto Baggio’s infamous miss against Brazil in the 1994 final.
They are not doing much better in Europe either. With Euro 2000 in the bag, opponents France equalized four minutes after injury time and won, while Euro 2004 saw Italy fall out of the group stage when Sweden and Denmark drew 2-2, the only result that would send to both teams. at the expense of the Italians.
Italy have made an art form of failure when it matters most and are likely to provide plenty of drama at this summer’s finals. However, they tend to bring it on themselves more often than not.
In a move that would make manager Barry Fry proud, Italy manager Marcelo Lippi used an incredible 36 players in qualifying, so it’s arguable that he hasn’t found his best starting eleven yet. However, after 10 qualifiers in which no player appeared in more than eight games, Italy may not have the stability to see him succeed in Germany.
Italy is notoriously slow at the start of Grand Finals, which won’t help in what is potentially the toughest of all the groups. In qualifying, they lost an early match in Slovenia and could come unstuck against an unknown Ghana in their first match.
After a minor hiccup in qualifying, the Italians remained unbeaten for the rest of the campaign, proving they are solid, if not spectacular, and led the group by five points. There is no value in them winning Group E on 11/10 or qualifying at great odds, but given their history of being “there or thereabouts”, they are likely to secure a place in the last 16.
Their success will come from a tight defense led by Fabio Cannavaro, who missed the embarrassing loss to South Korea in the 2002 final, and Alessandro Nesta.
Lippi also has a headache over who to play in attack. Veterans Alessandro Del Piero and Christian Vieri may make way for AC Milan’s Alberto Gilardino and Fiorentina’s Luca Toni, who scored four goals in eight qualifying games. Real Madrid’s Antonio Cassano is another option.
Recommended bet:
An unpredictable line-up and a history of doing “just enough” to progress through the tournament rather than win in style means there is more value in facing Italy than backing them to win the group or qualify. Their last game against the Czech Republic could end in a draw if one point is all it takes for both teams to reach the Round of 16.
Italy vs Czech Republic draw @ 11/5
