We don’t like being told what to do.
We know that bookmakers are experts at taking our money and that their advertising is set up for just that. As you go through an average betting showcase, you will notice that “Manchester United win 2-1, Rooney scores first 10/1”. The first question everyone should ask is why would a bookmaker advertise their best offer for everyone to see? If the probability of this happening was high, surely they would hide it from view? Well, not exactly, although they have teams of people evaluating all the odds for each market, the bookies are no wiser than a well-informed bettor about an outcome. Your only job is to list a solution that sounds plausible – surely 10-1 on Rooney to score first and Man U to win 2-1 is entirely possible?
The problem with this opportunity is that it is an accumulator in disguise. You are supporting Rooney to score first and Manchester United to win and do so with a score of 2-1. As with all accumulators, the more options you add, the greater the probability that one of the links in the chain will fail. Also, because of the way the odds increase, the money offered to you is very different from the actual chance that you will get it right. In this case, you have Home / Away / Draw (33%) for Man U to win, a score of 2-1 (even if you set it to a maximum of 3 goals in the match, you would have 6 options – 16%) and Rooney scoring first (potentially 22 players scoring, but if we limit it to 12 midfield and attacking players, you have an 8% chance that Rooney will score). That gives an actual probability of getting it right of 0.004% or odds of 236 to 1. All of a sudden that 10-1 doesn’t seem so good, does it? Just think, you’re getting £ 100 for your £ 10 bet when you should be getting £ 2,360 …
So how do we perform an accumulator and have a better chance of real performance?
Well, the first thing to keep in mind is to try to avoid them: singles are always better and a double should be the maximum. Of course, there is the lure of a big accumulator payday and that’s what really draws us in. If you must assemble accumulators, follow these rules …..
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Choose the contest results with the fewest possible results. This means using markets like over / under 2.5 goals where there are only 2 possible outcomes instead of a 5f handicap of 20 horses at Yarmouth …
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Calculate the actual probabilities to see how far you are from the actual probabilities. This can be done simply by calculating what you think the true odds percentages are and multiplying them. For example, Man U is playing Fulham and he thinks the chances are 50% Man U, 30% Draw and 20% Fulham and Tottenham are playing Blackpool and he thinks they have the same percentage of chance. Therefore, an accumulator in Man Utd. and the Spurs would be 25% (.5 x.5). To show this as a fraction, simply divide 1 by 25, this gives 4-1. Without a doubt, the bookmaker offers odds between 6 and 4.
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Limit the length of your chain. Every additional link I add is another chance for it to break and I remember to this day I missed £ 2,500 because I got 9 out of 10 in a football accumulator. Keeping is always simple and aims for a sensible return rather than a massive one. For example, it is much better to get 3-1 by picking two football matches at 1.5-1 and draws than to try to get 1000-1 by picking three 10-1 horses.
If you are extremely good at choosing the right outcome, how about this approach? Pick your four absolute favorites of the day. Then place them in order from most likely to least likely and place four bets, A, AB, ABC, and ABCD. If you’ve chosen well, you should get a much better return on your single and double while still retaining the possibility of a big payout. You may ask “what if I get the BC&D winner? Well then you must ask yourself why you favored” A “so much and change your selection process.
Alternatively, why not put the accumulator on the fly? If you’re good at picking the winner of the Group One races and you think you could get four races in a row. Then you have to think about betting, collecting your winnings, and then betting the next one for yourself and not automatically within an accumulator. That way you can always decide not to if you don’t want too much or only bet half of your winnings on the next race …
Take your time and think about the potential risks and rewards for accumulators and then only drop them when you’ve taken it all into account.
